Trent Frederic and the Edmonton Oilers landed on a brutal list this week, and Jake Walman is right there with him.
The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn dropped his annual worst contracts ranking, and Frederic checks in at sixth overall. Walman sits seventh.
Frederic finished the season with 4 goals and 3 assists in 74 games, a minus-15 rating. His cap hit sits at $3,850,000, rough numbers to carry with just seven points.
Walman posted 8 goals and 12 assists in 53 games, going minus-17 in a banged-up year. His deal carries a $3,300,000 cap hit, with term stretching well into the future.
Luszczyszyn's model gives Frederic just a 5 percent chance of providing positive value on his contract. Walman checks in at 13 percent.
Rough odds. But do they tell the whole story?
Frederic's second half looked nothing like his first
Frederic was a mess early, dragging down every line he touched and getting nothing going on the forecheck.
Then something shifted. Once he settled in next to Joshua Samanski, his game got sharper, more physical, more useful in his own end.
Edmonton finished 41-30-11 for 93 points, good for 14th overall and second in their division. Not a disaster of a season by any stretch.
Walman's path ran differently. Health was the issue all year, not effort or talent.
In six playoff games he still managed 4 assists, proof there's real skill sitting underneath the inconsistency.
Betting on Walman staying healthy for the life of this contract feels like betting on a Calgary winter without snow. It just does not happen that way.
Frederic played four playoff games and came up empty, no points and a minus-3 rating to show for it. That is the version that worries Luszczyszyn, and fair enough.
But a player who was minus territory in October and a plus performer by March is not the same player Luszczyszyn's model is projecting going forward.
Mike Babcock and Edmonton's front office inherit both bets now, healthy or not, good half or bad half. Nobody in that building gets to pick which version shows up next season.
Should the Oilers regret giving Trent Frederic and Jake Walman these contracts?
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