Erik Karlsson trade rumors are heating up again, and Saturday night an NHL insider put the Toronto Maple Leafs right in the middle of it.
Jimmy Murphy of RG.org floated Karlsson landing with either Toronto or Ottawa before the 2026-27 season starts, calling it his own read on where things could go.
That take followed reporting from Josh Yohe of The Athletic, who said it would be unlikely Pittsburgh hands Karlsson a new contract once this one runs out.
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Nothing here is confirmed. Pittsburgh hasn't said a word publicly, and Murphy's comment is speculation, not a report of an actual trade talk.
Still, the numbers behind it are real. Karlsson put up 66 points this season with Pittsburgh, 15 goals and 51 assists, and finished a plus-8.
His cap hit sits at $11,500,000, ninth among all NHL skaters, and the Penguins are 41-25-16 with 98 points, ranked 10th overall under head coach Dan Muse and GM Kyle Dubas.
Toronto's side of this looks a lot different. The Maple Leafs finished 32-36-14, 78 points, ranked 28th overall with a minus-46 goal differential.
They also closed the year on a seven-game losing streak under new head coach Jim Hiller, going 2-7-1 over their final ten games.
Toronto's cap crunch makes a Karlsson blockbuster complicated
Morgan Rielly is still Toronto's top offensive option on the back end, and he finished with 36 points. That's a 30-point gap between him and Karlsson.
Darren Raddysh helped the power play with 26 points on the man advantage this year. Karlsson matched that exact total in Pittsburgh, four goals and 22 assists.
Toronto actually beat Pittsburgh three times this season, winning 4-3 at home, 7-2 on the road, then 6-3 again at home in December.
Handing an $11.5 million cap hit to a 36-year-old defenseman while your own blue line already bled goals sounds like a rough bet no matter how many points he piled up.
Rielly's $7,500,000 and Dakota Joshua's $3,250,000 combine for $10,750,000, close enough to Karlsson's number that a retained-salary structure could bridge the gap.
Asking a 36-year-old to quarterback a Toronto power play that's been stuck in neutral is like handing a race car driver a stalled minivan and expecting pole position.
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Whether Murphy's hunch turns into an actual trade call is anyone's guess. Pittsburgh still has to decide if it wants to extend Karlsson at all, and that clock is already running.
Should the Maple Leafs trade Morgan Rielly to land Erik Karlsson?
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