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Friedman: Jason Robertson about to cash in with a $12M mega deal?

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David St-Jean
May 4, 2026  (7:15 PM)
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Apr 25, 2026; Saint Paul, Minnesota, USA; Dallas Stars forward Jason Robertson (21) celebrates his power play goal against the Minnesota Wild during the first period in game four of the first round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Grand Casino Arena.
Photo credit: Nick Wosika-Imagn Images

Elliotte Friedman just put a price tag on Jason Robertson, and it's the same number Mikko Rantanen pulled out of Dallas Stars management last winter.

The report dropped Monday afternoon on 32 Thoughts. Friedman believes Robertson's next deal lands around $12 million per year, and he wouldn't be surprised if the Stars pay it.

That's a massive raise for a winger currently playing on a $7.75 million cap hit. We're talking about a $4.25 million annual jump on his next contract.

Why Dallas would even consider it isn't a mystery. Robertson just finished a 96-point season. 45 goals, 51 assists, plus-22, and 15 power-play goals across all 82 games.

The 26-year-old also flipped the postseason switch. Through 6 playoff games, he's already at 5 goals and 8 points, including a game-winner.

Compare that to what Rantanen has produced in the same playoff run. 1 goal, 7 points, and a -8 rating over those 6 games for the team's $12 million man.

The cap hit Jim Nill can't ignore much longer

If Friedman is right, Jim Nill is staring down a math problem with no clean answer in Dallas.

Rantanen at $12M. Robertson at $12M. Two top-six wingers eating $24 million in cap space before you fill out a roster.

And that's before Roope Hintz's situation, before the blue line decisions, before the goaltending picture gets sorted. The Stars are 50-20-12 and third overall. Winning makes everything more expensive.

Here's the awkward part. Robertson has out-produced Rantanen in this playoff run by every meaningful measure, and the gap isn't subtle.

Does Glen Gulutzan's group really hand a second forward $12 million per season? Hockey logic says no. Market logic says yes.

Friedman didn't just float a number. He set the floor. Robertson's camp now has a public benchmark from one of the most plugged-in voices in the sport.

If Dallas wants to keep this group intact past next summer, the bill is coming due. Riding a 5-game winning streak hides a lot of things. It doesn't hide a cap sheet.