The Edmonton Oilers got bounced by the Anaheim Ducks in the first round, and this morning, @TheMugNHL dropped what they expect Edmonton's opening night lineup to look like next fall.
It's a mix of proven pieces, bargain contracts, and bets on players who've barely touched an NHL surface.
The top writes itself. Connor McDavid put up 138 points in 82 games. Leon Draisaitl added 97 in 65. That line runs itself no matter what surrounds it.
Zach Hyman slots back onto McDavid's left wing. He played 58 games this season and still hit 31 goals. The projection keeps that trio intact going into next year.
The second line pairs Draisaitl with Isaac Howard and Vasily Podkolzin. Howard is 22 with 29 NHL games on his resume. Podkolzin finished with 37 points on a $1 million cap hit. That's the kind of value that lets a team paper over other holes on the roster.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins centers the third line between Jason Dickinson and a player listed as Mikheyev. Mikheyev doesn't appear in current Oilers data, which points to a potential free agent addition the organization is tracking this summer.
Jarry over Ingram as projected starter raises a fair question
The fourth line has Colton Dach, Joshua Samanski, and Trent Frederic. Frederic posted 7 points in 74 games this season and carries a $3.85 million cap hit. That's a heavy price for that kind of output from your bottom six.
Below that, the projection slots Quinn Hutson and Connor Clattenburg together as the fifth forward pairing. Hutson appeared in 4 NHL games this season. Clattenburg dressed for 5.
That's not depth. That's a front office making a statement about where they think the pipeline is heading.
On the blue line, Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard anchor the top pair. Bouchard had 95 points this season on a $10.5 million cap hit. One of the cleaner back-end contracts in the league.
Darnell Nurse runs the third pair with Connor Murphy. Nurse carries $9.25 million. He posted 24 points in 82 regular season games and went scoreless against Anaheim in the first round. That contract isn't going anywhere, but the expectations attached to it keep growing.
Spencer Stastney rounds out the blue line as the seventh defenseman. He had 10 points in 66 games. Useful depth piece, nothing more.
In goal, the projection puts Tristan Jarry ahead of Connor Ingram. Jarry posted a .882 save percentage this season. Ingram was at .898 in 32 starts. Starting the goalie with the lower number isn't automatically wrong, but it needs a stronger explanation than habit.
Oilers fans are tired to watch poor goaltending night after night and Bowman did nothing. That's a real concern.
Edmonton finished 41-30-11, 14th overall. They lost to Anaheim in six games. This projected roster, posted today by @TheMugNHL, tells you GM Stan Bowman has a lot of work ahead.
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Whether the goaltending picture gets fixed, whether Frederic's cap hit gets justified, those answers are still somewhere in the middle of this offseason.
Should Tristan Jarry or Connor Ingram be the Oilers' projected opening night starter next season?
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