Connor McDavid's next contract move with the Oilers might come down to how this season actually goes, not just what's already on paper.
That's the read floating around this weekend after David Pagnotta joined Hello Hockey and called it a genuine wait-and-see situation for some of the league's biggest names.
McDavid comes off a 138-point season, 48 goals and 90 assists over 82 games, carrying a $12,500,000 cap hit that ranks fourth among all NHL players.
Edmonton finished 41-30-11 for 93 points, sitting second in their division, and they're 6-2-2 over their last 10 with a one-game win streak right now.
Pagnotta's framing was blunt. How the Oilers perform this year could shape whether McDavid signs an extension or starts pushing to go elsewhere.
Is that actually close to happening? Nobody's saying it is. But the fact it's even part of the conversation says plenty about where things stand in Edmonton.
Auston Matthews is living a rougher version of the same story in Toronto, and his numbers back it up. Sixty games, 27 goals, 26 assists, a $13,250,000 cap hit that's the second-highest in the league.
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Auston Matthews and the Leafs are in a different kind of trouble
The Maple Leafs are 32-36-14, 28th overall, losers of seven straight with a 2-7-1 mark over their last 10 games under head coach Jim Hiller.
That's not a backdrop that makes extension talks easy. Losing changes conversations fast, and Matthews has watched this roster stumble at the worst possible time.
Trading a generational center because of one bad stretch would be an overreaction bordering on organizational malpractice. But stars don't usually wait around for losing to become a habit.
Pagnotta's report also flagged Zach Werenski in Columbus as a name worth watching on the trade front, a reminder this isn't isolated to two cities.
Extension speculation around a franchise cornerstone is a bit like smoke near a house that's never actually burned down. Everyone still checks for fire anyway.
None of this is confirmed, and nobody in Edmonton or Toronto has said the words "trade me" out loud. But the wait-and-see clock is now running in both buildings, whether the fans want to admit it or not.
Should the Oilers worry about Connor McDavid's long-term future if this season goes sideways?
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