Chris Johnston confirms what Maple Leafs fans feared about Morgan Rielly

Morgan Rielly might not finish the summer wearing a Maple Leafs sweater, and the numbers behind that are getting louder.

Chris Johnston said Sunday night that it's still more likely than not, sitting at 75-25, that Rielly gets traded this summer.

That's not a soft lean. That's a strong signal from one of the most connected voices in the business.

Rielly put up 36 points this season, but he also finished at -18, a number that stands out on a blue line that's leaked goals all year.

The Maple Leafs limped home at 32-36-14, good for just 78 points and a spot buried near the bottom of the league.

Toronto is riding a seven-game losing streak, and a minus-46 goal differential says everything about how far this roster has fallen.

That kind of freefall changes how a front office looks at every pending decision, Rielly included.

Why moving on from Rielly actually makes hockey sense

Why keep paying a defenseman who's spent his whole career in Toronto? Sentiment aside, trading Rielly for futures makes real sense on a team drowning this deep in the standings.

He carries a cap hit of $7,500,000, and freeing that number up matters for a roster that needs to be rebuilt with intention, not patched again.

Rielly's recent form won't make the sell any easier. He's got just three points in his last 10 games, after a minus-3 stretch over his last five.

Still, he chipped in two game-winning goals this season, proof there's a version of his game that finishes when the moment calls for it.

Any team calling Toronto is betting that version travels once he's away from a sinking roster. Does it? Nobody outside that market really knows yet.

Johnston's number is a projection, not a signed transaction slip. Whether Toronto pulls the trigger before training camp or lets this drag out is still an open question.