The Edmonton Oilers are heading into training camp with the same two goaltenders, and the real question is whether the team in front of them finally shows up.
Tristan Jarry posted an .882 save percentage across 33 games last season, a number that looked worse than it should have given the defense playing in front of him.
His expected save percentage sat around .872 based on shot quality alone, meaning Jarry was actually stopping more pucks than the situation in front of him suggested he should have.
That's the real story here. Jarry wasn't necessarily the problem last season. The structure protecting him often was.
If Edmonton tightens up defensively this year, Jarry's raw numbers could jump significantly without him changing anything about his own game.
Frederik Andersen remains the other half of this tandem, and he's currently day-to-day, expected to be out until at least October 20.
Andersen posted a .874 save percentage across 35 games last season, numbers that still reflect a goaltender capable of playing at a top-10 level when healthy.
Andersen's health is the real variable nobody can control
That's always been the catch with Andersen. He can be genuinely elite in the crease, but staying on the ice for a full workload has been the recurring issue of his career.
At 36 years old, and already dealing with an undisclosed issue heading into this season, Edmonton has to plan for a tandem rather than leaning on him as a true number one.
Jarry carries a $5,375,000 cap hit, while Andersen sits at $2,750,000, giving Edmonton reasonable flexibility if either goaltender needs more or less of the workload as the year unfolds.
Edmonton finished 41-30-11 last season, third overall, a team that has enough talent up front that even average goaltending should be good enough to compete.
Connor McDavid is going to need to carry a heavier scoring load than usual, giving this uncertain crease some real margin for error.
If Edmonton's goaltending situation stays shaky through the first few months, McDavid's own production may end up being the difference between wasted points and a playoff cushion built early.
The math here is simple on paper. Better structure in front of Jarry plus a healthy stretch from Andersen equals a goaltending tandem that finally matches the talent around it.
Whether that actually happens depends on variables nobody in Edmonton fully controls, starting with how many games Andersen can even give them this year.
Will the Oilers' goaltending be good enough to support a deep playoff run this season?
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