Liam Ohgren let the biggest contract window of his career close Tuesday night, and the Canucks now have a different negotiation on their hands.
The deadline to sign an eight year extension expired at 9 p.m. Seven years becomes the ceiling under the new collective bargaining agreement that took effect today.
Steve Ewen laid out why nobody should be shocked. Holding off makes sense from the player's side when the ceiling is about to rise.
The 22 year old put up eight goals and 18 points across 69 games last season, finishing at -19.
Ewen pegs his usage at 14 minutes and 27 seconds a night, which is third line work. Fifty one of those games came after he landed in Vancouver.
He is playing this season on a $886,667 cap hit and becomes a restricted free agent when it ends. That is the whole leverage play.
Zeev Buium went the other direction on September 4. Eight years, $75.04 million, signed and filed.
“Liam Ohgren has every reason to wait before committing long term in Vancouver. A bigger role this season could dramatically strengthen his leverage. The Canucks may be facing a much more expensive decision next summer.”
- Adapted from Steve Ewen, The Province
Liam Ohgren's Canucks future takes a surprising turn
That deal carries a $9.38 million cap hit. The 20 year old is currently sitting on a $966,667 number, which tells you how fast this can move.
The counting stats do not scream $75 million. Twenty six points in 76 games with a -33 rating.
Context matters here, and Vancouver supplies plenty of it. The Canucks went 25-49-8 and finished dead last in the league.
“Ohgren showed enough in his first stretch with Vancouver to make this season meaningful. With top-six minutes potentially available, he has a real opportunity to raise his value. Betting on himself could become a massive win.”
- Adapted from Steve Ewen, The Province
They were outscored by 100 goals. Three hundred and sixteen went in behind them.
The home rink was the real horror show. Nine wins in 41 tries at Rogers Arena, against 27 regulation losses.
Every plus minus number on that roster is poisoned by it. Brock Boeser finished at -48. Elias Pettersson, the forward on $11.6 million, landed at -30.
So how do you price a 22 year old winger coming out of a season like that?
“Vancouver has already committed major money elsewhere, but Ohgren's situation is different. The 22-year-old can afford to see what his ceiling looks like first. One breakout season could change the entire conversation.”
- Adapted from Steve Ewen, The Province
Around the league, others took the guarantee. Ryan Leonard signed after a 45 point year in Washington. Drake Batherson did the same in Ottawa off 71 points.
Noah Ostlund locked his in too, and he is already listed day to day and questionable for the start of the season. Timing is everything.
Twelve players have signed eight year extensions this offseason. The Swedish winger in Vancouver is not one of them.
Betting on a bigger number next summer is like turning down a fixed mortgage rate because you expect rates to drop. Sometimes you are right. Sometimes you pay for that guess for years.
Manny Malhotra has top six minutes to hand out and very little reason to be precious about who gets them. What happens with those shifts decides this contract, not anything said in September.
Source : Canucks: Don't be surprised if Liam Ohgren doesn't sign an eight-year contract extension by deadline
Was Liam Ohgren right to pass on eight years and bet on a bigger payday next summer?
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